GROWTH IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA.

According to the IMF, growth in the countries of Black Africa over the past decade should remain stable. Of the order of 5% in 2013, it could be around 6% between 2014 and 2015.These good results are due to massive investments in infrastructure, a high household consumption as well as a historically low debt from the debt forgiveness granted by the creditor countries of the Paris Club.

On the other hand, the IMF refutes any notion that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa would be driven by exports of raw materials. Several countries have recorded high growth rate over the past decade without having a rich subsoil natural resource. This is the case of Burkina Faso (+ 6.5%), Ethiopia (+ 7%), Mozambique (+ 7%).





• Risks

It is important to stress that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa remains fragile.

For several countries in this region have forged strong commercial relations with emerging countries (BRIC) .These trade accounts for 36% of exports from the region and are primarily related to trade in commodities. Exposing the area to exogenous shocks related to the potential decrease in raw material prices, which, for its part be due to the slowdown in economic activity in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China).

We will not fail to note that a potential abnormal rise in interest rates in developed countries could impact negatively and sustainable growth in the countries of black Africa. This is not counting on the recent outbreak of Ebola that has wreaked havoc in the following countries: Guinea, Sierra Leone, Mali and Liberia. And whose impact does not begin to be felt.


On the other hand, poverty remains a major factor against the sustainability of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.Because, positive growth rates recorded in the past ten years by the countries of the region have not had any real impact on the everyday of black African populations. Nearly one in two Africans cocks in extreme poverty, although this rate is expected to fall to oscillate between 16% and 30% by 2030.Despite this, by 2030 the majority of the world's poor will live in Africa .


That respect our modest relative, contribution to growth in SSA.


Frédéric Betta-Akwa